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For now, at least!

Traders bet on three quarter-point cuts in 2024, down from expectation for six or seven at start of year

Federal Reserve minutes show central bankers’ uncertainty over pace and timing of cuts

Finance minister dubs snap poll ‘most consequential’ in history of Fifth Republic

There are significant institutional constraints on the Fed and the ECB’s room for manoeuvre

The consensus forecast is a mild US recession with bonds becoming more attractive

Investor confidence is proving to be very hard to shake

Also in this newsletter: Trump ‘immune’ for official acts as president, drug traffickers’ bank of choice, Meta in EU crosshairs

It is not just tariffs that might affect growth but also trade uncertainty and the effects of the Trump policy agenda

And the vibes ahead of today’s jobs report