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Federal Reserve minutes show central bankers’ uncertainty over pace and timing of cuts

Finance minister dubs snap poll ‘most consequential’ in history of Fifth Republic

There are significant institutional constraints on the Fed and the ECB’s room for manoeuvre

The consensus forecast is a mild US recession with bonds becoming more attractive

Investor confidence is proving to be very hard to shake

Also in this newsletter: Trump ‘immune’ for official acts as president, drug traffickers’ bank of choice, Meta in EU crosshairs

It is not just tariffs that might affect growth but also trade uncertainty and the effects of the Trump policy agenda

And the vibes ahead of today’s jobs report

Inflation persistence is a greater threat for the former than the latter — and rates cuts are a way off

Some wagers associated with a Donald Trump election victory suffer setback